Surprise Me

It’s about 36 hours to tipoff, and as I’m writing things, there’s a strange feeling coming from the press. The Toronto Sun’s Steve Buffery has predicted the Raptors to finish first in the Atlantic… As has Doug Smith (it’s buried in a mailbag somewhere)…. As has Michael Grange… And yet, just about every writer in the States has the Raptors being on the outside, looking in, or in the lower half of the conference. You’ve gotta wonder, as a fan, if we live in a “Raptors bubble” and whether it’s actually healthy? Well, after last year, the predictions on the outside of the “bubble” have gotten no less disrespectful for our Dinos.

There’s talk though, that a large part of the concern about our team is that other teams will no longer be “surprised” by us. It’s strange, but I feel a sense of calm if that’s their biggest argument. I mean, the Raptors didn’t play slouches in the final 1/3 of the season, still managed to keep a winning record, and extend their lead in the Atlantic division. Let’s also not forget that in January, when the Raptors made their run, they got all three awards of the month. If winning those awards didn’t clue other coaches in, I’m not sure what would. Of course, the average fan or broadcaster isn’t going to notice that the Raptors were on the up and up last year, but do you think opposing coaching staffs weren’t aware?

Another big argument that’s been making the rounds down south is how many of our players overachieved by posting career numbers. It might have been surprising to a lot of stats guys, as they all had pegged the Raptors to have fairly average PER stats for the year. When the Raptors completely blew those predictions out of the water, a lot of those stats guys were made to look foolish. So, as far as predictions go, a lot of them are predicting lowered stats for the squad in general. However, our squad was made up of a lot of players from overseas, who actually underperformed according to their EuroLeague stats. In addition, I don’t think the Raptors need career years from anyone but their youth core, whom are still expanding their game yearly.

Now I have no problem with the arguments that the East has gotten stronger. Boston’s going to get it going good, the Knicks have possibilities and Orlando looks about three steps ahead of where they were last year. But the way I see things shaking out, the so-called top tiered teams of last year (with the exception of the Raptors) have all taken a step back. The Wizards look to be exposed on the inside and Gilbert looks like he may be battling an injury all year, the Cavs have no rebounding to go with their lack of a point guard, Detroit has gotten another year older, and Miami is counting on Ricky Davis to win some games for them.

So let the prognosticators make their comments about the Raptors. It’ll be a nice surprise for everyone come April.

FantasyFanatics.com Basketball Notebook for HoopsAddict.com

By Rob Shaw, FantasyFanatics.com

This past week was all about the draft, picking the right players and getting them into your lineups for the open of the season. Here’s a list of some of the players who were grabbed in the later rounds. There’s a good chance that they might be at the end of the bench of some of your competition’s rosters; you might be able to work out a deal where you get them for cheap. In other words, here are some sleepers, and where they went in the FantasyFanatics.com Experts Fantasy Basketball Draft.

ROUND 6, 66TH OVERALL: Andrea Bargnani
Bargnani’s three position eligibility is terrific for a fantasy league. He is a former number one overall pick who has been playing great in the pre-season. By now we’re up to the second tier players, and a guy with center eligibility that has an extremely high ceiling seems like the perfect pick. He has guaranteed himself a starting role in Toronto and defines “all around game”. I am not certain whether I will use him as a forward or center quite yet, but there is not one part of the game where he won’t contribute.

ROUND 7, 70TH OVERALL: Corey Maggette
I had been eyeing this guy since the earlier rounds. With Elton Brand out for the season, one of the most underappreciated scorers in the league will have a chance to run the show in L.A. While Maggette should be a fantasy monster at putting up points, rebounds, free throw shooting, and field goal shooting, there are some drawbacks that have likely left him available for the taking in the 7th round. His defense does not exist, and his range is limited. Expect 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and great shooting numbers in a rare opportunity for Maggette to be the focal point of the offense.

ROUND 8, 85TH OVERALL: Rudy Gay
Gay doesn’t stand out for any one statistic, but he will make his impact by doing it all. He can score, rebound, block, steal, and knock down the three. Gay’s rookie totals alone fail to tell the story. Sure, 11 points, and 5 rebounds aren’t bad, but more importantly, look at what he did the second half of the season: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, and 1 three. This season I expect the 6’9 UCONN product to eclipse those numbers with 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 threes. If he can do that, he might be the steal of the draft.

ROUND 8, 87TH OVERALL: Chris Kaman
Coming of a disappointing season, there are some fair questions as to his desire and work ethic, but with Elton Brand out for the season, Kaman should be able to smell the opportunity for a starring role. He is one of the best low post scorers who had to share the paint with Brand the past few seasons, but with rookie Al Thornton more of a perimeter player, he should hold the post by himself. 13 points, 9 boards, 2 blocks, and fine percentages are in line with the best center in Los Angeles.

ROUND 9, 91ST OVERALL: Darko Milicic
Milicic was one of my sleepers going into the draft. I say this because he’s never gotten a chance to start, yet in limited time, he’s played extremely well. While averaging just 24 min. per game last season, he managed to average 8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 1.8 bpg. Since he was just signed by the Grizzlies, I think he’ll finally have the chance to show why he was picked 2nd overall by the Pistons in ’03. 12 points, 9 boards, 2.2 blocks, and decent percentages are realistic for man drafted ahead of Dwayne Wade and Carmelo Anthony.

ROUND 9, 97TH OVERALL: Rajon Rondo
Rondo earned the starting point guard job for Boston at the end of last season, which is second only to playing the point for the Harlem Globetrotters. In other words, he’s going to put up a ton of assists this year. He could easily get the ball to Allen, Pierce, and Garnett 10 times a game, and steal 2-plus on defense. What he lacks is consistency, but learning from 3 of the best in the game should help him figure how to join the ranks of starting point guards.

ROUND 10, 107TH OVERALL: Jamaal Tinsley
If there was an important position to capitalize on, it would be point guard or center. Assists and blocks are too scarce for people to pass on, yet in the tenth round, I’m able to grab this point guard with a pretty high ceiling. While injuries have been an issue for him, 13 points, and 7 assists are numbers that very few players in the league can attain. In fact, Tinsley ranked 11th in assists last season, and 17th in steals. These are numbers that are pretty consistent with Kirk Hinrich, who went many rounds earlier. At 29 years old, Tinsley should be in his prime. Expect 14 points, 7 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and a three-pointer per game. I just hope his percentages are decent along the way

ROUND 12, 130TH OVERALL: Marvin Williams
Williams was the 2nd overall pick out of UNC just 2 years ago, so he’s obviously a talented player. In his first season as a starter, he averaged 13.1 ppg and 5.3 rpg. Not bad, but there’s room for improvement. He’ll be starting again at power-forward for the Hawks this season. He’s on a young and very talented team. While Josh Smith and Joe Johnson will take away most of his shots, Williams can develop into a much more talented version of Shane Battier. 17 points per game is very realistic as soon as this season.

These are a few players who were likely selected in the later rounds of your draft. Chances are the fantasy managers that drafted them, don’t realize the value of the jewels that they have. So now what? You do your best to get them on your squad. You can do this by trading players that you have also selected in the later rounds. Another option is trading a higher ranked player for another high ranking player, and having your opponent throw one of these players into the trade as well. They’ll be concentrating on the bigger names, while you may be able to get your hands on the difference-maker of the fantasy season.

We’re now ready for tip off, next week. We’ll keep you updated on the fantasy trends on the hardwood.

Chat with the Fantasy Basketball Experts at FantasyFanatics.com, the premier fantasy sports community.

Wade 3 – Rebirth of Converse

Usually when we think of shoes we think of Nike, Adidas, and Reebok. Of course, other shoe companies have been around, but they’ve never quite gotten the same amount of attention that those big three have. Converse, it can be argued, hasn’t had a high profile since they had (pre-choking incident) Latrell Sprewell as their spokesperson. Since then the company has gone through tough times by filing for bankruptcy in the early 2000’s and was subsequently bought out by Nike in 2003. Of course, this was a fall from grace from the years Converse was the official shoe of Dr. J and the NBA in the 70’s. Nevertheless, the brand has continued on and this year we’ll see the rebirth of Converse as a wing of Nike, starting with the Wade 3.

In addition, Dwayne’s created a series of spots that will air in the next few months:

• “From Robbins, Illinois” :60
• “From Robbins, Illinois” :30 – Court
• “From Robbins, Illinois” :30 – Booth

The Wade 3 drops in stores on November 3rd.

Preseason Recap: Raptors vs Wizards 98 – 64

It’s nice watching TJ do his best “Jose” imitation. With 8 assists last night and no turnovers, few shots (due to a bad shooting night) and 4 steals, TJ’s played with some poise, recognizing that if his shot isn’t good, there’s plenty of others that can and will make the shot. It’s this kind of play that a lot of TJ supporters point to when the invariable comparisons come up, and the best part of it is that he’s doing more of it with Chris Bosh on the floor. And for the second game in a row, the Raptors have more than 25 assists (28 this game, 31 previous) and shooting over 45% from the field.

On the flip side, Jose’s doing a pretty good “TJ” imitation with some anticipation steals when doubling down on his man. By anticipating the pass for the last two games Jose’s come down and grabbed the ball from the weak side by being more aggressive. In addition, it seems like his range has been extended out beyond the 3 point arc and as he’s looked confident and on target.

The Wizards without Arenas are going nowhere fast. Jamison and Butler, while more than competent, cannot hope to keep the team in games without a rebounder like Etan Thomas and a bench that is far from solid. In many ways, when I look at this Wizards team, I believe that it depends so heavily on its “Big 3″ it reminds me about how frail the Celtics can be as well. Granted, the Celtic’s big 3 are far more acclaimed and have produced consistent All-Star calibre play for their entire careers, but that same question remains in my mind. We saw the Wizards sink like a rock at the end of last year, and one wonders if the same fate lies for the Celtics should one of their 3 fall.

Back to the Raptors though. It’s that depth that kept the Raptors in the season when they experienced injuries to major starters and contributors throughout the season. Nevertheless, yesterday’s game has shown that while Jamario Moon’s found his place offensively, defensively, he should prove to be a major liability. After his nice game on Thursday vs the Cavs I decided to keep a closer eye on Moon. In the Wizards game, we saw that Moon was often “floating” between people and playing some imaginary zone defense. Put bluntly, he often lost his man, and while he was deciding whether to double down or not his man would become open. Now, in this case, it didn’t cost the Raptors, but it’s important to remember that the Raptors were playing against third stringers and his teammates ended up stealing the ball on the plays. Moon also managed to get the proper position on his man but failed to box him out. Nevertheless, this is going to be the biggest problem for Moon if he is retained for the entire season.

With preseason ending we’ve figured out a few things:

• Jason Kapono is probably going to start the season, but I’m still planning for Delfino to move into the starting lineup, or at least, play significant minutes down the stretch. In many ways Delfino reminds me of Alvin Williams: solid defender, streaky shooter, can drive to the basket, but his strength is in his “D”
• Bosh’s knee looks fine. Garbajosa’s leg, I’m not so sure. Now, Jorge has told everyone that he’s playing the same as before but the question is whether psychologically there’s some hesitation. Traumatic experiences usually leave larger emotional scars than they do physical.
• Ford vs Calderon. It’s just not going to matter from my perspective, so long as Ford continues keep his head on straight. It’s the only way to keep the argument at bay and Ford seems to recognize it.
• Luke Jackson is the prime candidate to get dropped. While I have major questions about Moon’s defense his potential makes him worth keeping.

With that the preseason comes to a close and the Raptors open the season against Philadelphia on Hallowe’en.

Southeast Division Season Previews

Washington Wizards
Bullets Forever

Orlando Magic
Believing in Magic
Third Quarter Collapse

Miami Heat
I Want to be a Sports Agent
Crazy from the Heat

Atlanta Hawks
Impending Firestorm
Atlanta Hawks Blog

Charlotte Bobcats
Bobcat Bonfire

Archives
CelticsBlog NBA Page

Preseason Recap: Raps vs Cavs 111-78

Preseason is just preseason. It’s not real play.

But yesterday, with only one more game to go, we caught a glimpse of a Raptors team that we expect to see when they’re firing on all cylinders. Ford was making great passes, Calderon was his usual self as an anchor, Delfino emerged as the “option of the night”, and we saw the beautiful passing that had been missing since March of last year. In fact, without Garbo, Bargnani, and then the stifling playoffs, I’d say it’s been the first time in a while that we’ve seen what “Raptors Ball” really is about.

I’ve been saying it for the past few games, but having Chris Bosh go down with the knee injury might have been the best thing for this club. It was during that incident last year that cause the Raptors team to go through a kind of reconfiguration and reformation. It was during this time that Rasho and Bargs both emerged from their niches to become a little something more than expected. With Bosh now inserted back, we’re seeing the same kind of productivity we saw last year when Bosh was reinserted. Coincidence?

However, the night belonged to Delfino. Between guarding LeBron, taking on Larry Hughes and just being productive on the glass, the Argentinian finally showed a spurt of what he could provide to this team, if given the opportunities. Granted, there will be nights when he struggles, but if he plays hard defensively, we will be seeing a whole lot less Joey this year. Throughout the night, we saw an aggressive Delfino position himself for rebounds, and if he keeps his play consistent, I think we could see a real battle for minutes between Delfino and Kapono. Interestingly enough, Joey only saw about 5 minutes of play last night, despite being a better physical match with LeBron.

On the flip side, I’ve got great concerns about this Cavs team, especially if they don’t have a guy like Varajao rebounding for them. Even with injuries to Snow and Gibson, I seriously doubt it would have mattered much to the Raptors, who have far superior play at the point position. The real question is how the Cavs will make up for that missing rebounding and energetic presence from “Sideshow Bob”. Sure, turnovers killed the Cavs for a lot of the night, but if they can’t score more than 78 points with James playing over 30 minutes, then there are real concerns. It’s understandable that this team would be jet lagged from their recent China trip, but there’s just not that inside presence on this team. As much as Raptors fans like to make a whole lot about our rebounding situation, the Cavs have even fewer options, with Ilgauskas being their only inside threat, and the Cavs shooting around 41%, I wouldn’t blame the Cavs for feeling just a little worried.

Finally, there’s been a question floating around the Raptors as to who’s going to be let go: Dixon, Moon, or Jackson. If Colangelo can’t find a suitable package, the bet is that Jackson gets ousted as Moon has shown a far more adept touch on the floor, and gives the dimensions of athleticism and rebounding that the Raptors are at times lacking. Jackson has done little to raise his own profile, though it could be said that he’s played much more “in the team” flow, rather than look to make a name for himself (unlike Dixon, Moon, or Graham). Dixon is just too expensive of a contract to swallow, and I still believe that at least offensively, he’s a great addition to this team. So Jackson it is.

Next up: Wizards @ the ACC.

J.R. Smith: One More Mistake from Done?

Last Wednesday I watched the Denver Nuggets play the Detroit Pistons. Of course I was hoping to watch Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson. However, of greater interest to me was watching swing man J.R. Smith. The last time I saw Smith he was arbitrarily jacking up three-pointers and getting pulled from a playoff game and asked to leave the team for the remainder of the series. The last time I heard about Smith he was involved in a car crash in which his SUV he was driving overturned, killing his friend.I was looking for signs of maturation from Smith. He looked good, real good. Smith shot 10-19 from the floor and 10-15 from the free throw line. He was only 3-9 from 3-point range but so what. Smith scored 33 points in 30 minutes of play. Though the Nuggets played reserves while the Pistons played their starters, Smith dominated play and single-handedly kept Denver in the game. After the game I was satisfied that Smith had indeed changed himself in some unknown but fundamental way.

I was wrong.

Sometime the following day Smith was suspended from the Denver Nuggets for the first three games of the regular season for, according to the Nuggets player personnel director, “conduct detrimental to the team.” According to court records, Smith was issued a summons to appear in court to answer to allegations of destruction of private property, disturbing the peace and assault in an October 13 incident at the “DC-10″ lounge, a local Denver nightclub. The summons was issued in lieu of Smith being placed under arrest.

J.R. Smith will be 22 years old in November and though he is entering his third season in the NBA, he is a very young man. If he was in college this would likely be his senior season.

But after a 10-game suspension for his role in the Nuggets-Knicks scrum, after repeatedly landing himself in Denver head coach George Karl’s dog house, after the postseason suspension, and after the death of his friend by his own doing, he is a veteran at negative behavior. You might think that Smith would come to the conclusion that there has to be a more positive way to live life. You might think that after a 33-point game in which he dominated some of the best defenders in the NBA he would be satisfied with his performance and thinking about ways to perform even more efficiently.

But no, not J.R. J.R. is more into “conduct detrimental to the team.”

I am sure J.R. Smith has no idea that in the common workplace he would have been fired from his job by now. I am sure that he has no idea that if he wasn’t supremely talented the Nuggets would have shunted him off to another team so that another coach, another GM, and another owner could deal with his lack of care for himself and – apparently – everyone around him.

And therein lies a problem with sports and athletes. The sports themselves are beautiful. Beautiful to watch and beautiful to play. What lies in side them is corrupt and putrid and foul. Writers grew up loving the sports and loving the athletes who play them. Yet after years of being embedded with teams or leagues they become hard and jaded and cynical and spiteful – just like too many of the athletes they cover.

All those little boys who, after their first dunk, couldn’t seep that night because they replayed the feeling of themselves suddenly transported into a world they could previously only dream. For a moment they flew. They took the ball and jumped above everyone else – and flew. Too few years later, by the time they are professionals, that dunk becomes so commonplace they refuse to display their flying for the little boys who were once just like them.

Their world that should be an expansive place of wonderment is nothing more to them than a cage in which they are the zoo animal. The only place they feel comfortable is the place they are seen most; the basketball arena.

They try to live a normal life with their longtime friends or member of their family but too often they are see as the golden cash cow; pull and tug and properly combine that with a caress on the correct bloated udder within their egos and the money or gifts or the jobs that pay more than they could ever make anywhere else doing next to nothing, will come.

And yet.

There are many, many athletes in every sport who want to play in the “big leagues,” but there are few with the requisite talent to do so. There are 30 NBA teams and there are 15 players on each team’s active roster. But only 12 can don the team uniform on a given night. That means there are 450 players total who can say, “I play in the National Basketball Association.” There are only 360 who eligible to play on a given night and of those, about 250 see action.

Of those players how many can repeatedly put themselves in the position J.R. Smith has and remain on their team? Perhaps 100 in all three major sports?

To say playing professional sports is an elite endeavor is a gross understatement. It is more akin to winning a genetic lottery and then winning a socio-cultural lottery that places the athlete in circumstances that allow him or her to, through the work necessary, to fulfill their given ability.

This is the world inhabited by J.R. Smith. He has a special athletic gift that has been cultivated by many people over his life so far. He has taken that ability and driven himself to the pinnacle of the athletic endeavor that is basketball. He must deal with extraordinary pressures few 21-year olds ever know and they are pressures of a variety unimagined by the masses. When money and material comfort are not constant features in a person’s life, more money does often mean more problems.

But in this, his third year in the NBA it is time for Smith to grasp the importance of himself in relation to his surroundings and begin to act accordingly. The Denver Nuggets organization, by allowing Smith to grow up in public, is telling him that he is one of but a few special athletes in major sports.

Though Smith issued an apology for his actions, it is less time for words than actions. It is time for Smith to return payment to all those who have helped him attain his present status as an elite athlete. It is time for Smith to sequester himself and ask his friends to shield him ———– from him. It is time for Smith to actively seek out counsel from Allen Iverson because AI, as an elder statesman who “did it his way” now sees how some of his way was not the way. Navigating through life as a National Basketball Association player is not an easy chore.

Finally, J.R. Smith needs to ask himself what he wants to be. He is at a fork in the road of his life and his career. One road leads to talent lost and a life ruined, the other to stardom and success. The choice, on the surface, should be easy. However, when you’ve made bad choices a pattern of behavior, the pull of “doing wrong” becomes increasingly normalized.

At this point in time the odds are against Smith. And there is an entire city that is with me in saying J.R. Smith is one more mistake from not us not watching again to find out if he has changed.